All of this stuff combines into one of those fun times of any sports pre-season: Prediction time. I've got my opinions, and I'm going to share them. I'm going to go somewhat in-depth, give some reasoning behind picks, maybe even make a few bold predictions. Hopefully the baseball fans among you will enjoy!
Let's start it off with the division predictions (And yes, I did records and made sure they matched up with the actual number of games that will be played across the league this season):
The Regular Season
AL CentralDetroit: 95-67
Kansas City: 85-77
Cleveland: 82-80
Minnesota: 76-86
Chicago: 70-92
The thought process: Detroit has arguably the best starting rotation in the majors, and they have a lineup that is potentially devastating 1 through 9 (If nothing else, the 1 through 5 is ridiculous). Meanwhile, Kansas City is that team that keeps looking like they're going to take a step forward. I think this is the year they do it, and finally contend for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, Cleveland's offense looks to be enough to carry them to a respectable record, but I think their rotation puts them out of any real playoff consideration. And when it comes to Minnesota and Chicago, I just don't see either team really competing this season, and I think Chicago is one Chris Sale injury away from dropping a ton of games this season (And I kind of built that into my prediction).
AL East
Tampa Bay: 92-70
Toronto: 91-71
Baltimore: 88-75
New York: 78-84
Boston: 74-88
The thought process: On paper, this is the strongest division in baseball. And it will be, at least at the top. Starting at the botttom, though, the two teams who have been on top for so long look like the ones on the outside looking in this year. Boston fell apart last season, and they're still in rebuilding mode. They will be a stronger team in years to come, but this is not their year. New York...well, they're already showing that they have no depth. This could be a very bad season for the Yanks, and, if you're a fan, it doesn't look like it will be getting better anytime soon. On the high end of the division, Baltimore, Tampa and Toronto all look like strong teams this year. Toronto made the biggest moves, but I think it's Tampa's pitching and defense that leads them to their second division title in team history.
AL West
Los Angeles: 89-73
Oakland: 83-79
Seattle: 82-80
Texas: 77-85
Houston: 65-97
The thought process: This division holds what are probably three of my boldest calls. First, I don't see Houston losing 100 games, which seems pretty bold based on the projections. Second, I see Seattle having a good season. They've slowly been building up some really good depth, and they could become a playoff contender this season, at least when September begins. Finally, I see Texas falling off this season. Three straight heartbreaking seasons, losing their biggest player this off-season to arguably their biggest rival right now...it's a recipe for disaster. Oakland looks like a team that will probably drop off just a touch, but will still compete. But the Angels, with a full season of Trout and Pujols coming off his worst season (He can't do worse...right?) look like the team to beat in the division this year.
NL East
Washington: 100-62
Atlanta: 91-71
New York: 79-83
Miami: 74-88
Philadelphia: 73-89
The thought process: Washington looks like the only real competitor to Detroit for "best team" language, and they may arguably be better. With a young, incredibly strong lineup and rotation, this team is just so good. Atlanta looks great, too, but I don't see them being a match for Washington. The rest of this division? Ugh. New York looks like the best of the bunch, but Miami and Philly both look like teams that need to go back to the drawing board.
NL Central
Pittsburgh: 89-73
Cincinnati: 84-78
Milwaukee: 79-83
St. Louis: 76-86
Chicago: 66-96
The thought process: Pittsburgh has been on this path the last couple of years where they do great and then fall apart in the second half or last two months of the season. This is the season I think they keep it together (It's also a preview of one of the individual awards). Cincy looks strong, but Dusty Baker still scares me. I can easily see one of his pitchers (Aroldis Chapman) going down this season from overuse or poor use, and if the offense slumps, they're done. Milwaukee is another one of those teams that, frankly, I just don't believe in. They're probably the team most likely to prove me wrong, but I just don't trust their lineup. Same goes for St. Louis. And Chicago is still in rebuilding mode. Give Theo a little more time.
NL West
Los Angeles: 85-77
Arizona: 83-79
San Francisco: 83-79
San Diego: 82-80
Colorado: 60-102
The thought process: Colorado has no shot. Outside of that, this division looks really even. Even with the Dodgers spending barrels of money, they don't look good enough to run away with anything. I think they take the division, but it won't be by much, and it will be tough. Arizona and Frisco both look tough. And Diego could surprise some people this season. Their team could be better than they look on paper.
The Playoffs
Wild Card Round
Toronto over Baltimore
Atlanta over Cincinnati
Division Round
Detroit over Toronto in 4
Tampa Bay over Los Angeles in 5
Washington over Atlanta in 5
Los Angeles over Pittsburgh in 4
Conference Championship
Detroit over Tampa Bay in 6
Washington over Los Angeles in 5
World Series
Detroit over Washington in 6
The thought process: Detroit and Washington look to be the best of the best in their respective leagues. The potential for a Verlander/Strasburg match-up in the World Series would be ridiculously awesome. Which means it probably won't happen. But I'm going to call it anyway.
The Awards
AL MVP
#1: Mike Trout, LAA
#2: Prince Fielder, Det
NL MVP
#1: Andrew McCutchen, Pit
#2: Bryce Harper, Was
AL Cy Young
#1: Justin Verlander, Det
#2: James Shields, KC
NL Cy Young
#1: Stephen Strasburg, Was
#2: Clayton Kershaw, LAD
AL Rookie of the Year
#1: Lenoys Martin, Tex
#2: Trevor Bauer, Cle
NL Rookie of the Year
#1: Adam Eaton, Ari
#2: Jedd Gyorko, SD
The thought process: I believe in Trout, and I don't see him dropping off this season. I think he battles another Detroit player for the award this year, with Fielder putting forward a monster season. But a full season of Trout is going to be ridiculous (Don't be shocked if he hits 40 HRs and steals 50 bases), and I think he gets the award this year. On the NL side, with my Pittsburgh prediction comes the idea that McCutchen proves he is a superstar, and I think he gets a well-deserved MVP this season. But I also think Harper comes up huge this year, too. Great, young talent is in the league right now.
When it comes to the Cy Young, I won't say "it's already decided," but there are definitely two favorites, and they are Verlander and Strasburg. When it comes to JV, he really should be going after his third straight, but I think he pulls out his second in three years after another season flirting with 25 wins. Strasburg could easily do the same in the NL. And as far as the #2s? I think the Shields trade will be a really good thing for Kansas City, at least in the short term. He gets strong Cy considerations for bringing the Royals back to contention. And Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher on the Dodgers. He is a perennial Cy Young candidate.
Finally, the rookies. In the AL, I'm going to go with a Rangers rookie, but not the rookie everyone's talking about. Profar could be great, but he may not even make the Opening Day roster. Meanwhile, the departure of Josh Hamilton may spell doom for the Rangers as a whole, but it does a great thing for Lenoys Martin. With limited potential breakout candidates in the AL, I think a full season could be the thing that seals it for Martin. Meanwhile, I think Bauer ends up having a solid season in Cleveland and proves to be the prospect Arizona originally thought they had (Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Wil Myers came up and stole this thing away if he gets called up in May, but if Tampa waits (Like they tend to do), I don't think he can get there). In the NL, there's a lot of potential. Shelby Miller could do great things in St. Louis. And, my #2, Jedd Gyorko, could prove very valuable in San Diego. But I think it's Adam Eaton, another Opening Day starter (It seems) that should take it as Arizona competes for a playoff spot. If he gets on base, he should have some pretty good stats out of the leadoff spot.
#1: Justin Verlander, Det
#2: James Shields, KC
NL Cy Young
#1: Stephen Strasburg, Was
#2: Clayton Kershaw, LAD
AL Rookie of the Year
#1: Lenoys Martin, Tex
#2: Trevor Bauer, Cle
NL Rookie of the Year
#1: Adam Eaton, Ari
#2: Jedd Gyorko, SD
The thought process: I believe in Trout, and I don't see him dropping off this season. I think he battles another Detroit player for the award this year, with Fielder putting forward a monster season. But a full season of Trout is going to be ridiculous (Don't be shocked if he hits 40 HRs and steals 50 bases), and I think he gets the award this year. On the NL side, with my Pittsburgh prediction comes the idea that McCutchen proves he is a superstar, and I think he gets a well-deserved MVP this season. But I also think Harper comes up huge this year, too. Great, young talent is in the league right now.
When it comes to the Cy Young, I won't say "it's already decided," but there are definitely two favorites, and they are Verlander and Strasburg. When it comes to JV, he really should be going after his third straight, but I think he pulls out his second in three years after another season flirting with 25 wins. Strasburg could easily do the same in the NL. And as far as the #2s? I think the Shields trade will be a really good thing for Kansas City, at least in the short term. He gets strong Cy considerations for bringing the Royals back to contention. And Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher on the Dodgers. He is a perennial Cy Young candidate.
Finally, the rookies. In the AL, I'm going to go with a Rangers rookie, but not the rookie everyone's talking about. Profar could be great, but he may not even make the Opening Day roster. Meanwhile, the departure of Josh Hamilton may spell doom for the Rangers as a whole, but it does a great thing for Lenoys Martin. With limited potential breakout candidates in the AL, I think a full season could be the thing that seals it for Martin. Meanwhile, I think Bauer ends up having a solid season in Cleveland and proves to be the prospect Arizona originally thought they had (Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Wil Myers came up and stole this thing away if he gets called up in May, but if Tampa waits (Like they tend to do), I don't think he can get there). In the NL, there's a lot of potential. Shelby Miller could do great things in St. Louis. And, my #2, Jedd Gyorko, could prove very valuable in San Diego. But I think it's Adam Eaton, another Opening Day starter (It seems) that should take it as Arizona competes for a playoff spot. If he gets on base, he should have some pretty good stats out of the leadoff spot.
The Conclusion
All in all, I think 2013 is going to be a great season. If we get a Detroit/Washington World Series, I believe we'll one of the better series in recent memory. But, as always, I think we're going to get some very surprising good (And bad) teams this season, and it will be interesting to see how everything plays out.
I'll be updating as the baseball season goes along, both about actual baseball and, of course, my fantasy league (It's time to gear up for a run at back-to-back championships!). If you enjoy baseball, I hope you will enjoy these updates!
